Validating an Idea Before Spending Money

Part A: Prove the Idea Works

Everyone you tell about your idea will say it is great. Your spouse, your neighbour, the guy at the gym. It costs them nothing to say it, and they like you. I would not build a business on it.

The distinction I want you to hold on to is compliments versus evidence. A compliment is something a person says. Evidence is something a person does: gives you time, gives you an introduction, gives you money. The further along that list, the more it counts.

Talk to people, and ask about their life, not your idea

The trap in an interview is pitching. The moment you describe your idea, people become polite, and polite is useless to you. Ask about the past and the present instead. What happened the last time this problem came up? What did you do about it? Those answers are true. What they say they would do in future is a guess.

Here is a script you can use with a homeowner, a restaurant manager or an office administrator, depending on who your customer is:

• When was the last time you had to deal with this? What happened?
• What did you do about it? Who did you call, or what did you buy?
• What was the most frustrating part?
• What did that cost you, in money or in time?
• Have you looked for a better way? What did you find, and why did you not use it?
• If you could change one thing about how it is handled today, what would it be?
• Who else should I talk to about this?

Notice what is missing. There is no “would you buy this?” Nobody can answer that honestly about something that does not exist. Stay quiet after each answer for a few seconds longer than feels comfortable, and the second, truer answer often arrives.

Aim for ten to fifteen conversations with people who really are your customer, and keep going until you stop hearing anything new. Write down their exact words, not your interpretation. After a handful you will start hearing the same problem in the same language, and that language will end up in your marketing.

Then ask for something that costs them

Once you understand the problem, test the offer. Describe what you would provide and the price, and watch what happens. Questions for this stage:

• If I did this for you at this price, when would you want it to start?
• What would need to be true for you to say yes today?
• Is there anyone else who would need to agree?
• Would you put down a deposit to hold a spot?

A preorder or a deposit is the strongest signal you can get. Someone who pays has told you the problem is real, the price is possible and they trust you. A pilot customer is nearly as good: one or two people you serve at a reduced price, or free with a promise to give you honest feedback and a testimonial if it goes well. Be clear with them that it is a pilot, and be clear with yourself about what it is costing you.

You can also run a simple test offer without building anything: a one-page description, a phone number, and a conversation with a few people from your list. If you are worried that costs money, notice that it costs far less than a truck or a lease.

Read the answers honestly

Listen for how people talk about the problem. Do they lean in, tell stories, name what it has cost them? Or do they shrug and say “yeah, that would be nice”? The first is a problem worth solving. The second is a nice idea.

What would you accept as proof, and what would make you stop? Decide before the first conversation, not after, because once you are excited you will bend the rules. Maybe it is “five of ten people say yes to a paid pilot.” Maybe it is “two deposits by the end of the month.” Write the number down so you cannot move it.

If the evidence is weak, treat it as feedback. In my own work I stopped calling the misses failure and started calling them feedback, and here it means you have saved yourself the cost of learning it the hard way.

This week

Write down the ten people you could speak to this week who fit your customer description, then book the first three. Prepare the seven questions above on a single sheet and add one line at the top: what would count as proof, in numbers.

What it costs

Plan two to four weeks at a few hours a week. Interviews are free; a coffee for someone is about the most you will spend. A test offer or pilot may cost you a few hundred dollars in time and materials, depending on your trade, which is small compared to what it protects you from. When you go back over your notes, ask whose opinion you counted as evidence that was really just kindness.